Glassnode: Bitcoin price outlook after BTC break above $23k

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  • In its weekly report, Glassnode says that bitcoin’s rally from its December lows following the collapse of FTX surprised many investors.
  • Bitcoin could move higher, but a new buy signal is likely at a price around $28.3k.
  • Selling pressure above $23.3k is more likely to push short-term holders and miners to exit liquidity.

bitcoin price The leading cryptocurrency remains close to $23,000 after the breakout pushed the price above the psychological $20k level.

Bitcoin’s rise as the weekend highlights prices above $23,000 This surprised many, and while optimism is high among bulls, profit booking is likely to lead to a potential liquidity exit. Specifically, this outlook may reflect how brutal the 2022 bear market was for short-term holders and miners.

On-chain data platform owned by Glassnode shed light on This possibility.

Glassnode’s Viewpoint After the Latest BTC Price Action

Bitcoin “looks up” according to on-chain data firm Glassnodealmost out of the woods“But the price action from levels in the $21k to $23k region also recaptured many on-chain pricing patterns.

A look at Investor Value (currently at $17.4k) and Delta Value ($11.4k) shows similar price action at the bottom of the 2018-2019 bear market. Investor value is the average price at which investors acquired all spent and mined distributed coins, while delta value is derived from realized cap minus bitcoin’s all-time average cap to derive a technical pricing model.

At the heart of this approach is the price discovery phase, which lasted 78 days during that 2018 bear market bottom. The current market is at a similar level, with BTC above its true value of $19.7k.

,This suggests a similarity in duration pain in the darkest phase of both bear markets.,” Glassnode wrote in its weekly market report good,

Still on the Investor Value/Delta Value metrics, the on-chain platform points to a measure called compression, which takes into account the spot price to determine the intensity of the market devaluation. The metric also relates to the scale of change in an asset’s realized cap or capital inflow volume, with a threshold zone of 0.15-0.2.

Looking at the current BTC price and compression price, Glassnode estimates that a bullish confirmation signal could be triggered if bitcoin bulls reclaim $28.3k.

more optimism for bulls

Also helping the bull case is supply in the leveraged measure, which rose 12% over the past two weeks from 55% to 67%. Profit is an increase in the percentage of coins “the fastestAll in a former bear market, suggesting a lot more coins changed hands below the $23.3k level.

Key to the bulls’ case is also the fact that bitcoin price is trading above all three cost bases for long-term holders, short-term holders and BTC real value at current levels. This is the first time that the spot price has crossed three real prices and sustained movement above the levels would be positive.

bull trap case

While Glassnode points to possible bull case scenarios, its report also highlights possible cases of fresh selling pressure.

According to the On-Chain Data report, one of the “Substantial increase in profitability,” which the platform says increases the likelihood of selling pressure triggered by short-term holders.

Miners are also likely to be driven by the price action and may look to liquidate some of their holdings, adding to the potential pullback for BTC price.

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