Pro: Bitcoin to bottom in Q4 this year

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  • Bitcoin price neared $18,650 after falling to a low of $18,255 on Monday after another selloff amid a prolonged crypto winter.
  • Analyst Rectt Capital says it often takes months to create ‘typical market bottoms’.
  • He expects the price of BTC to decline in the fourth quarter of this year.

Bitcoin fell below $20,000 and a more than 7% dump took the price to a low of $18,255 early Monday.

The decline follows widespread weakness in risk-on assets as the broader market expects a massive interest rate hike from the US Federal Reserve and an equally high rise from the Bank of England later this week.

If the stock declines further, bitcoin (which has shown a high correlation to volatility in equities) is also less likely to trade.

Analyst on Bitcoin Price Outlook

According to pseudonymous crypto analyst Rect Capital, Bitcoin could continue to face bearish pressure in the coming weeks. He tweeted,

,Typical BTC bear market bottoms take months to develop before a new macro uptrend begins. BTC Has Been Wandering At Current Prices For Only A Few Weeks – History Shows It’s Too Early To Expect A Full-blown Macro Trend Reversal So Soon,

While he expects bitcoin’s bottom, Recht says it is likely to happen later in Q4 this year. The analyst based his view on historical price movement in relation to the bitcoin halving – a four-year cycle event in which new BTC creation (or mining rewards per block) is cut in half as total BTC shrinks.

The miner’s reward dropped from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC at the last halving in 2020, and will drop to 3.125 at the next halving for 2024.

,In 2015, BTC bottomed out 547 days before the halving. In 2018, BTC bottomed out 517 days before the halving (discount March 2020 crash). If bitcoin is going down 517-547 days before the upcoming April 2024 halving… then the bottom will be in Q4 of this yearReckitt wrote.

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